What The Next Global Crisis Could Look Like, According To The Strategist Who Forecasted Much Of 2020 So Far

Time for a quick recap.

A Bank of England policymaker has warned that UK interest rates may need to be cut below zero, as the economy reels from rising Covid-19 cases.

MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe predicted a jump in unemployment once the furlough scheme ends, which could push joblessness over the Bank’s 7.5% target. He warned:

The fact that redundancies are rising sharply and the number of vacancies is only at around 60% of its level at the start of this year makes it difficult to see a scenario where all of the remaining furloughed workers are reintegrated seamlessly into the labour force.

There is huge uncertainty about the scale of job losses, in both directions, but in my view, the risks are skewed towards even larger losses, implying even more slack in the economy than in our central projection.

Vlieghe also dampened hopes of a rapid rebound in the economy, pointing out that the slump is still deeper than after the financial crisis, despite the summer recovery.

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Google has been hit by a major antitrust lawsuit. The US DoJ accused the search giant of illegally thwarting competition to maintain a monopoly on the search and search advertising business.

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Stock markets are edgy, as US lawmakers continue to negotiate the details of a possible stimulus package. Donald Trump has claimed he wants to do a bigger package than the Democrats, even though the Republicans have yet to match Nancy Pelosi’s $2.2trn proposal.

Airline stocks have jumped, after a new one-hour Covid-19 test was introduced at Heathrow. The scheme is designed for passengers flying to countries, such as Italy and Hong Kong, which require pre-departure checks.

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Demand for ‘sexual wellbeing products’ has jumped, as the easing of lockdown restrictions has allowed a pick-up in social interactions.

Consumer goods manufacturer Reckitt Benckiser also reported a surge in sales of cleaning products, but also predicted less demand for baby formula milk next year, as the pandemic is likely to push the birth rate down.

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And finally... Children and young people are at risk of becoming a “lost generation” because of the UK government’s pandemic policies, according to members of the government’s Sage committee of scientific experts:

Source : https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/oct/20/markets-us-stimulus-deadline-bank-of-england-uk-economy-reckitt-benckiser-business-live?page=with:block-5f8ecaad8f0898b4359181d8

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